Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.